As Holiday Sales Surge, Retailers Embrace AI Agents, In-Store Pick Up to Close Out 2024

Global online holiday sales are up 4%, with AI and agents on track to influence $200 billion in sales

Salesforce today reported that global online sales for the 2024 holiday season (Nov. 1 – Dec 15) have reached $849 billion, a strong 4% year-over-year (YoY) increase. With just nine days left until Christmas, the data shows retailers are deploying a host of new strategies, including AI agents and Buy Online Pick Up In-Store (BOPIS), to make the most of consumer spending momentum.

“As retailers work to cash in on the final spending frenzy, AI agents are a lifeline,” said Caila Schwartz, Director of Consumer Insights and Strategy for Salesforce. “Retailers like Saks — which have tapped Agentforce to augment their customer support teams — are showing up for shoppers without driving up their costs. By handling questions, order issues, and recommendations with a personalized touch, they are making last-minute gifting feel effortless. These retailers will win a bigger slice of the holiday pie.” 

Retailers like Saks — who have tapped Agentforce to augment their customer support teams — are showing up for shoppers without driving up their costs.

Caila Schwartz, Director of Consumer Insights and Strategy for Salesforce

In the final push to Christmas, Salesforce predicts that agents — powered by trusted customer data — will help drive shoppers to the buy button with personalized engagements and support. Since Cyber Week, retailers have increased their use of AI and agents by 23%, and AI is on track to influence more than $200 billion in holiday sales. Salesforce also predicts that BOPIS, where shoppers buy gifts online and pick them up either in-store or curbside, will double the week before Christmas as shoppers race to get last-minute gifts.

The Salesforce Shopping Index analyzes data from over 1.5 billion consumers on retail sites on the Salesforce Platform, including 29 of the top 30 U.S. online retailers. This data encompasses commerce, marketing, and customer service insights, providing a comprehensive view of holiday spending trends.

Early indicators: Five predictions based on 2024 holiday data

• Agents supercharge holiday sales: Retailers are leveraging AI, including agents, as a way to drive efficiency and personalization this holiday season.
  • Since Cyber Monday, retailers have increased their use of generative AI and agents by 23% week over week (WoW). 
  • Since Nov. 1, AI has influenced 19% of all global online orders through actions like customized promotions, order support, and product recommendations.
  • Businesses leveraging generative AI and agents for customer service during the holiday season saw nearly double the engagement growth compared to those without these capabilities (38% vs. 21%).
  • Salesforce Prediction: AI is on track to influence upward of $200 billion in holiday sales for the full holiday season, a 12% increase YoY. 

Businesses leveraging generative AI and agents for customer service during the holiday season saw nearly double the engagement growth compared to those without these capabilities (38% vs. 21%).

• BOPIS is a lifeline for last-minute shoppers: The BOPIS option has increased in popularity as consumers avoid long lines and shipping deadlines.
  • BOPIS accounted for 21% of online orders in the week following Cyber Monday. 
  • After the ground shipping deadline for Christmas delivery passes, retailers with BOPIS often experience 5-7 times higher online sales growth than those without it.
  • Salesforce Prediction: In the weekend before Christmas, the number of BOPIS orders will double compared to the rest of the season, accounting for nearly 40% of all online orders for retailers leveraging the in-store fulfillment feature. 

• Retailers beware, returns are on the rise: Consumers are being more judicious about their final holiday purchases and making their own price adjustments to stretch their budgets.
  • Since Nov. 1, about 8.3% of purchases have been returned, up from 6.6% in 2023.
  • The global return rate is expected to peak at 13% during Christmas and Boxing Week, up from 12% in 2023. 
  • Salesforce Prediction: Over $133 billion worth of orders purchased this holiday season will be returned, which agents can help retailers manage after the holidays. 

• Mobile wallets, Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) simplify checkout for shoppers:
  • Mobile wallet payments such as Apple Pay, Google Pay, and PayPal continue to see high adoption, with usage increasing 16% YoY globally the week following Cyber Monday.
  • 6% of all orders since Nov. 1 were purchased with BNPL options.
  • Salesforce Prediction: Nearly a quarter (24%) of all global holiday season orders will be purchased with mobile wallet payment options. 

• Mobile dominates holiday shopping: Mobile devices have become the primary channel for holiday shopping, and adoption continues to increase as consumer experiences improve.
  • 78% of all global digital site traffic came from mobile devices since Nov. 1.
  • Mobile also accounted for 69% of all online orders since Nov. 1.
  • Salesforce Prediction: 83% of all online traffic and 76% of all online orders will be driven by mobile from Dec. 23-25.

Data Cloud powers personalized customer interactions: Leveraging their vast customer data and the combined power of Agentforce, retailers are harmonizing customer information into a single unified customer profile that helps them drive insights and deliver intelligent, actionable, and personalized engagements to shoppers in real time.

• Data Cloud saw significant YoY growth in customer records ingested during Cyber Week (+78% YoY), showing the industry is rapidly growing the amount of data they’re using to drive business outcomes.
• Data Cloud processed over 300 trillion records (+85% YoY) in Cyber Week alone, and helped retailers action over 94 billion profiles across various platforms and channels like Marketing Cloud and Google. This enabled retailers to deliver targeted marketing, personalized recommendations, and optimized inventory management — all crucial during the busy holiday season.
• Salesforce Prediction: With more data than ever, retailers will seek out a unified data platform that allows them to more seamlessly connect, harmonize, and action against real-time customer insights, allowing for personalization across every touchpoint.

Explore further:

• Visit the Shopping Insights HQ for additional holiday data
• View Cyber Week 2024 insights
• Check out Salesforce’s earlier predictions for the holiday season 

2024 Salesforce holiday insights and predictions methodology

Powered by Agentforce, Commerce Cloud, Marketing Cloud, and Service Cloud, Salesforce analyzed aggregated data to produce holiday insights from the activity of more than 1.5 billion global shoppers across more than 89 countries, with a focus on 18 key markets: the United States, Canada, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Japan, the Netherlands, Australia, New Zealand, the Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan, Australia, and New Zealand), Switzerland, Latin America (LAM), the Middle East and Africa (MEA), Eastern Europe, Belgium, and the Nordics. This battery of benchmarks provides a deep look into the last nine quarters and the current state of digital commerce. Several factors are applied to extrapolate macroeconomic figures for the broader retail industry. These results are not indicative of Salesforce performance.

The prediction data that we present are from proprietary Salesforce research. The calculations we use blend first-party and third-party data, as well as several market assumptions, to generate the data points we present.