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All right.
Good afternoon, everybody.
We're so happy to have you here.
And we’re just going to
get started with our panel.
first of all,
before we get going with you, just,
you know,
I brought a few friends of mine
from the big island of Hawaii.
It's only a 7700 mile flight.
To get from Kona to Zurich.
Will you welcome
L.T. Smooth and his band from Hawaii.
I think L.T.
How many years
have you been coming to Davos now?
Ten years?
Amazing.
I'm so glad that you're here.
And Ray was saying that, you know,
you set the vibe in the right way.
So thank you for being here.
All right.
Well we're so happy.
And, you know, it's an exciting moment,
for all of us. And,
this, Davos,
like,
every Davos is so different
than anything I've ever been to.
And looking forward
to talking about that.
We have an incredible panel,
but we have so many exciting
customers here with us and, there
I know there's many members
of the media as well,
and all of our key
stakeholders are here.
But just before
we are starting, my friend
Dennis here from
Adecco
was just telling me
a little bit about his vision,
for AI and, for agents.
And if you haven't heard, it's my new,
passion project.
I've never been so excited
about Salesforce.
My job, what I do every day,
and also the work that we're doing
with all of our customers
all over the world,
especially in this
incredible transformation
where we see, this idea
that,
every company can become an agent
for this company.
So, anyway, Dennis,
you are really the leader
because right at the beginning,
before we even really got
the product launched,
we were still
conceptualizing the product.
We didn't really even understand
the technology we had
and the implications.
Your company
somehow came to us
and had a huge vision for the future.
And,
I don't know how many
folks know about Adecco,
so maybe you can
just briefly introduce yourself.
But before we start the panel,
you just tell us a little bit
about what
your thoughts are for the future.
Thank you, Marc and hi everyone.
Yeah.
Adecco Group is a global HR and talent
company, 24 billion in size, euros
or Swiss francs.
And so we serve our clients
across the whole, talent needs.
And actually
our purpose
is to make the future work
for everyone.
And we talk about the future
for everyone.
Everyone are
It's every human on earth.
And, what we,
you know, if we talk about the future,
what's going to happen
if we don't,
we're going to see an inflow,
a massive influx of agents,
digital agents, digital workers
into the workplace.
And the challenge,
I think that we all have here is
how do we make sure
that people do not become obsolete,
but augmented?
And how do we make sure that we create
with with you, the operating system
that will ensure the symbiosis between,
you know, human workers
that have to have a future
if we want a future for our society
and these digital workers
that we bring in so much productivity,
so much efficiency and,
also bring joy to the workers
because some of the mundane tasks,
some of the things that they cannot,
that they cannot achieve today
is being done by agents.
So we are super excited.
But what we are going to do,
we we love the vision that you have.
And I think the,
the commonalities of putting agents
and humans
together and create that, ecosystem
that will make
that work is super exciting.
Well, I think that, you know,
as we have these discussions,
it kind of just became clear to me
that we're really the last CEOs
who only had
exclusively human workforces,
that now we're moving into a new world
where we have human workforces
and digital workforces
working together.
And that is really a whole new idea.
And that that really is
about our whole generation,
that we're really the last generation
that will
that we're
for most of our lives,
we were exclusive without AI,
and now we're working
in partnership with AI.
It doesn't really mean
you could be in the government.
You can be,
you know,
a child working in school,
but you can also be a CEO.
And now it's all about working with AI.
And how do humans
with AI create success together?
Yeah.
And
remaining human centric.
Because that's the point.
You know, at the end of the day,
we also employ a lot of people.
And so how do we among them
keep human centric
and make things work? Right. Thank you.
Well, I'll tell you.
Thanks, Dennis,
because you've been
so inspiring me to me this year.
And another person
has been inspiring to me,
not just this year, but for many years.
Is Jeremy Jurgen to the World
Economic Forum,
who we've worked with
for more than a decade.
How long have you been at the WEF now?
26 years, 26 years at the WEF,
26 years, 26 years at the WEF,
and it's really an institution.
And if you want to know
who makes all of Davos happen
and makes the WEF happen
and keeps the ships
running on time and wires it all
together, it's Jeremy.
And I'll tell you that,
more than a decade ago,
Jeremy came to me and said, hey,
can we replatform the
World Economic Forum in Davos on Salesforce.
So all of the sessions,
the apps, the communication
between all of the attendees
for more than a decade
has been on Salesforce systems,
and it's been a very
successful partnership.
But a few months ago,
Jeremy came to San Francisco.
And when was it?
Was it October?
October?
And, so about 90 days ago,
he said when we came
in, we wanted to give him
the demonstration of Agent
for us, what we're doing
and how everything is working,
what our vision is for humans
with AI working together.
And then Jeremy turned to us
in the middle of the meeting
and he said, listen,
we have all these apps
that we're using from Salesforce
sales and service
and field service
and marketing
and commerce
and analytics and Tableau
and Slack and all of these things.
And we have the data cloud.
Why are we not running Davos
on Agent Force?
And I'm like, well,
it's only 90 days away.
And he's like no
we're going to get this done.
So if you haven't taken out the
World Economic Forum
App and gone
to the App Store
and loaded it in and tried it,
you'll see that Jeremy's
team has done this amazing thing
where the app is agenetic and there's
an agenetic layer
on top of Davos for the first time.
So, Jeremy,
do you want to just tell us
a little about your vision
for the future?
Great. Thanks, Marc.
And it's great to be here
and I do run this
with a lot of other colleagues there.
So it is a team effort.
And it's also based
with all of our partners
here in the room.
Doing that,
as you said,
Salesforce is our backbone.
We are interdenominational.
Marc may not want to hear that.
So we are using a lot of other services
there as well.
But the agents are driving the business
for us.
We have agents in operation
and you can use it on the app.
You can directly access it.
We use Salesforce records.
So when our teams meet
with you during the meeting,
they just do a voice memo.
It automatically goes
in, says, okay, did
you meet with, Marc and Viola Star?
And we said, yep.
We met with Phyllis and Marc and goes
in, okay,
what are the objectives
for the next steps?
Obviously goes through the system.
We have a strategic intelligence app.
We're using the data cloud.
We actually aggregate
a lot of the different information.
We're doing experiments
with scenarios, risk
modeling a lot of different things.
And that's just what
we're doing inside.
We're a thousand person organization.
And so if we're doing this
then we think, okay,
what happens
when all of our partners start
to bring this into their organizations?
So we're also driving efforts
with Salesforce
and other leading companies to say,
what does AI for prosperity
and growth look like,
and how do we unlock the benefits here?
I know there's some dumors
where an open platform.
So, you know,
these aren't people,
you know, glass half empty,
you know, glass half empty,
full like the glass is shattered.
It's broken
and you're going to die of thirst.
Now AI is an external risk.
Yes.
In the future,
I think
there's much more immediate
existential risks that we face today.
And actually using these
AI tools
now to actually address
them is what we need to do.
So that's our vision
is actually working with all of you
to address these global challenges
using AI, using space technologies,
whatever it takes to address
the most critical challenges
so we can have a safe, healthy
and prosperous world for everyone.
Great job.
Well, thank you Jeremy
for everything you're doing
and thanks to your team
for a successful WEF.
And now we're going to go to our panel
and we have some great panelists,
folks that, you know,
some folks who have been here before,
some new folks as well,
to kind of let us talk about
what's happening in the world.
And let's take,
I would say, you
know, 45 minutes
and have kind of like hear
different perspectives
from very different folks.
And of course, we have the
the individual
who's been on the panel
the longest,
who's the founder of the panel,
who has had so many incredible
insights in the panel in many years.
When you go back
and watch the panels,
he's usually 10 or 20 years
ahead of everybody else.
And please welcome will.i.am.
And we also have
sitting next to will.i.am
a new panelist her first year.
We watch her every single day on CNBC.
She is the person who I go to
when I want to understand
the financial markets.
She's one of the most outstanding
journalists in the world.
She's tremendous.
Her vision, her
insights, her ideas on what's happening
to not only move markets
but give us those kind of absolute
moments of enlightenment
where we're able to execute.
Please welcome Sara Eisen.
And we also have an incredible person
And we also have an incredible person
I had dinner with last night,
a good friend of mine for many years.
We have all read his book on principles
and kind of how to think about
not only our lives,
but also the future,
how the world is changing, how the
the incredible
forces of
political forces
and economic forces
are coming together
to change our world.
He is prophetic. He's visionary.
He's also incredibly insightful.
Please welcome Ray Dalio.
And of course,
we have joining us for her
second year in a row. I'm very excited.
Someone who is actually helping
to guide the entire world.
And it's not only its monetary
systems, its values
helping us to guide
through these changes of technology.
The amazing
Kristalina, please welcome Kristalina.
And also
our second most tenured person
on the panel of all time.
And my good
friend, mentor,
somebody who guides me,
sends me in the right direction
and shows me not only what
I'm doing well, but is quick to tell me
when I've made a mistake.
Please welcome Al Gore.
Well, okay.
Well, I'm
so excited to have everybody here
and to, conduct the panel.
And, usually I don't sit on a chair
when I'm doing this,
but this is such a comfortable
looking chair,
I think I'm
going to have to go over here.
And what we're going to do is,
you know, these are such incredible
and unique and diverse viewpoints.
If you look at the panel,
everybody leads a very different life.
They look at the world
very differently.
They see things
and where things are going
remarkably often times
in the similar way.
So what I hope to do on
the panel is to kind of
help to illuminate that.
And so we can kind of look at all
the different areas of the world.
And by the time that we go through it,
we can kind of get a vision
for where the world is going.
The first question
I'm going to ask is really kind of
in the short
term, and the first, you know,
call it 3 to 5 years.
Now, what are the big changes
that we should be aware of?
What's really happening right now?
We see a lot of things
happening in many different,
diverse aspects of the of the world.
Where are we going to see
the next 3 to 5 years?
And then my second question will be,
and I'll follow up
and I'll come in on based on,
you know, what we're hearing.
Give us a slightly medium term answer.
Where are we
in the next call it decades.
So if this is 2025,
where are we going
to be in 2035 or 2040?
So let's go ahead.
And we're going to start with Will
because, well, you've been doing this
the longest with us.
You've been the most accurate
no pressure.
And just as a vision.
And we also have a clock.
So all of the answers
are about three minutes.
The panelists have in front of them
a three minute clock.
They have to hit the clock
to make it work.
For some of them, it's
incredibly difficult
because they've got a lot to say,
but we're,
it just helps keep the panel going.
So let's go ahead and Will,
tell us, give us the short term,
then the next 3 to 5 years,
then the next 3 to 5 years,
you know, call it 2030.
What's what's our future?
Wow.
So hey, everybody.
Thanks, Marc.
Any agentic
going down that path.
You know, you have, like,
self-driving cars.
Waymo is level five.
Mercedes has level three,
and level one is like cruise control.
Level two,
you got to keep your hand
on the steering wheel
as soon as you take it off. It goes
bzzz bzzz bzzz.
you put it on level
three, full on, like
stop it at stop signs.
But level five, Waymo is like
Waymo better.
There's
going to be level five companies.
Right now we're talking about agentic
that's like cruise control
hand on steering wheel. Bzzz bzzz bzzz.
Put it back on.
We're barely entering.
Level two
workforce, workplace.
By the end of the 20s,
there's going to be a company
that's like level five.
And that's like all agents.
Some like
some finance folks,
but fully ran
and
how do we prepare ourselves for that?
If a company already
has the rights of people,
if you have a fully level five company
having the right to people,
what's up with that?
So yeah,
and I'm one minute under.
Very good.
Well, before you go on,
since we have another 30s with you,
you know,
it wasn't that far a long ago.
It was about a decade ago.
You sat in that chair
and you said, the future is
your data is your future.
You know, you called it.
I think I idatatie,
you know,
how does it play
into what you're saying?
Well, data back then, back
then we were talking
about identity theft. Right.
So 2015 we're here
at Davos and Brian from,
from Bank of America was right
next to me.
And we were talking
about identity theft.
And so I was like identity theft.
We're giving all of my
I gave everything to meta for free.
They're like,
they got more money
than Bank of America.
They didn't sell anybody no product.
idatatie data is gold.
I'm not my bank account.
I mean, I'm
not my
my driver's license on my passport.
Those are just numbers
on my searches, my address book,
my purchases, all my pictures.
all my location
all my
G.P.S., my past places that I went to.
That's who I am.
And with that data,
my machine learning,
they could predict, like
predictive algorithms.
That's who I'm going to be.
So I'm my data.
And so the combination of
that was like idatatie.
You know,
the idatatie is coming
that was coming in 20
at that time was 2015.
That was like that's
what's coming in 2020.
You said five years from now,
that's kind of
what the world was like, not
really what it is now.
So
that agenetic level five,
business configuration,
these companies,
you know, if we don't pick,
if we don't pick our fights
and address like data practices,
then a fully autonomous level
five company, the power of Meta,
knowing everything about everyone
because no one knows
the value of their data.
That not an awesome tomorrow.
at that tomorrow.
So that's what
we need to be concerned about
Kristalina.
This is your second year on the panel.
You have been incredibly insightful
about where the world economy is going,
how all of the countries are
interoperating.
You've also been a key stakeholder
in keeping the world together
in the last year.
When things have gotten tough,
you have helped us stay together.
Give us your vision over the next
3 to 5 years of,
you know, coming out a little bit
into this geopolitical world,
especially in regards to finance,
you know, how
should we be looking at this?
Marc, I have two pieces of news.
One is good. The other one is bad
But which one do you want first?
Well, you should be a doctor
because
that's
what my doctors always say to me.
So. Well, I got the doctor.
What to say?
I'm the doctor of the world economy.
That's all right.
All right, give me the good.
Well,
the good news
is that what we have
seen over
the last the years,
I expect to continue
an incredibly resilient world economy.
We have gone through
shock, after shock, after shock.
shock, after shock, after shock.
And yet here we are.
We just upgrade, growth projections
for this and for next year to 3.3%.
We have seen tremendous creativity,
mostly driven
by business, by businesses
like, yours, and,
when I, when I look at the,
transformation
that is likely to be driven
by artificial intelligence,
it is going to bring
tremendous benefits across the world.
Bad news,
when you
look under the hood of this 3.3%,
we see dramatic divergence.
The US doing very well.
We actually
upgraded growth projections for the US
by half a percentage
point to 2.7 for this year.
We see however, Europe kind of limping
and the emerging markets
developing countries
some doing well in these doing well.
But overall what they see
is capital flowing towards the US
where it is most profitable.
And if we don't have capital flowing
in the emerging world,
that is going to be detrimental
to everybody.
The second thing we see
that is very concerning is
in comparison to prior decades,
growth is much slower.
We project around
3% for this next five years,
and that is not enough
to bring to people the increase
in living standards they aspire for.
And most tragically,
most of this down is due to slow down
in productivity,
with the exception of the US,
where productivity
grows by 0.8% year after year after
year after year.
For the rest of the advanced economies,
it is just meager 0.2%.
It's like nothing.
And most troubling,
productivity has gone down
in emerging markets.
It was 2.5%.
Now it is 0.7%.
Now it is 0.7%.
In developing economies,
it was around two.
Now it is zero.
And then there is the hangover of that.
And how can we get out of this
problem of debt?
The only way out is by growing
stronger.
So that would determine our future.
Can artificial intelligence
be a driver of productivity and growth,
and can we do it in a fair way
across the globe,
or the divergence only continues.
Kristalina, just a quick follow up.
You know, the third quarter,
we saw productivity in the US,
like you said,
go much higher than we expected.
Economists are kind of
putting a light on,
you know, what
we're doing in our company,
which is artificial intelligence,
is making our economy stronger.
We didn't add more workers
in the third quarter.
We didn't have human labor.
We had digital labor.
How do you see that
addition of digital labor,
and do you have to build new models
now to understand how that's impacting?
And is that a US only phenomenon,
or do you think digital
labor will also impact
the global economy?
It is
not only us in the US
it is most profound, most, impactful.
Across the globe,
we see potential for up to, almost 1%
increase in productivity
because of artificial intelligence
and whether you're right on it or not
depends on your preparedness
and your access to it.
So what we do at the fund,
we created the AI Preparedness Index.
We rank countries on digital
infrastructure,
on labor markets, education.
How do you get your labor force ready.
And we look at regulation and ethics.
The ethical foundation of AI is still
very soft.
And in some countries it doesn't exist.
And then the world is spread like,
you know, it's flopping
like an accordion.
You know, advanced economies
doing really well.
60% of Labor Day already is impacted
by AI,
low income countries falling behind
only 26% of jobs, impacted.
And the danger of that divergence
growing because of security
concerns,
data privacy concerns,
and of course, because of lack of basic
infrastructure to tap into it,
is very real.
And that is what makes me lose sleep.
Are we going to see
a more divided world
and therefore less secure world,
or we must have
the will not to let that happen?
Yes, I think the question you're asking
is, is AI a basic human right?
Is that,
you know, when you walk in,
like if you
walked into the United Nations
and there's
this there's a plaque right
at the beginning
of the basic human rights.
And, you know,
I always wonder
if I ask the question,
I think about ten years ago,
should AI be on that,
that plaque
in the front of the UN, that AI is
a basic human right otherwise,
or will we create a world of
have it have nots and also the special
somebody of immense power
that's not only coming to companies,
but nation states through the use of,
I well,
I want to come back to that.
Kristalina. I want to go to Sara.
Sara, you're one of
the first to report,
on some of these changes in
the economy in the third quarter
and also
what's happening in the fourth quarter,
and especially
with many of these companies
that are U.S. based,
that have become leaders
in artificial intelligence,
you know,
how do you see this
kind of
United States strength in the
in AI in this,
new world evolving?
And where do you
where do you see the next
3 to 5 years economically?
First,
this is very strange for me, Marc,
because I'm supposed to be asking,
you the question.
That's why I wanted you on the panel.
So thank you for that. I'm honored.
But uncomfortable.
Actually, no, I look what I
what I hear from speaking to leaders
all the time on this stage,
like you all
like a lot of the CEOs in this room
and here in Davos.
And why I'm frankly here
because I gather so much intelligence
and speak to such smart people, is that
confidence is so key
when it comes to growth.
And really that just
spreads into everything.
And right now
confidence is very high
in the United States. Consumers.
It's turned around
after being low for the last few years,
even though the economy was doing
pretty well.
Small business
confidence has shot up and CEOs,
especially the American ones,
are practically giddy
right now
over the change in Washington
and a pro-growth administration
that is basically functioning
as close to a business
as as we've seen, including
cutting costs in a
in a government efficiency program
where business has a seat
at the table, again,
for business
is influential
in policymaking decisions.
So confidence
if we
if we can
sustain this
and if they can execute,
which is a question
is ultimately
I think really good for for growth
and for hiring and for investment and
so we've got that on our slide.
We also have
Marc Benioff and Salesforce
and we have the magnificent seven.
And we have all of these
AI trillion dollar companies
that nobody else has.
And so
there has been this
theme in the markets
and the economy of US exceptionalism.
And that's been the story.
And I think, you know, it
it continues to be the story.
But what's interesting to me in Davos,
I expected to come in
and talk to investors
and CEOs and everyone
to be actually very downbeat on Europe.
No offense,
because the growth hasn't been a strong
and there's no AI, you know, big
mega-cap companies.
But what I'm hearing is that,
hey, maybe some of that
will rub off on us.
Maybe Europe's going to deregulate.
Wouldn't that be something
pro-growth policies
that may be spreading
and maybe that would be a little more
all inclusive.
So optimism short term, medium term.
Let's see how it goes.
But we really could be in for
a strong look a strong U.S.
is as good for the world, right?
So Sara
you see a doji of Europe coming in.
And in addition to that,
you know, you mentioned the mag seven.
You have so many insights
and also deep interviews
with these leaders.
But putting aside that great
company, Salesforce
and their fantastic CEO,
also let me ask you this,
which which business executive,
or or person has
you think been so surprising to you
in the last year,
especially how it's move
the markets and also
move the economy forward?
Well, it's always interesting
to watch companies
transform themselves
and reinvent themselves.
Like to see how, for instance,
Meta has done that many times.
I'm not such a fan of
the masculine energy,
but clearly,
you know, they've gone from
they became a mobile company and then,
you know,
they went to be a metaverse company
and then they would
and it's just
it's been very successful
every time they've
they've taken these steps,
even if mistakes were made.
And now they're one of the favorite,
AI plays, right now.
I mean
I'm also it's
not just the big flashy sexy stocks.
You know,
there are also other ones
that have surprised me in a good way.
You know, IBM is one.
As an example,
IBM was a company
that everyone thought,
okay, they missed the cloud.
They missed all these big.
They used to be this huge juggernaut
and were sort of counted out.
And now they've also had quite
a transformation under Arvind Krishna,
who came in
also as an unexpected
sort of unknown
technologist CEO
who spun out some of the
the businesses,
simplified the businesses, had
this real intense focus on AI,
and now I think quantum as well,
and has done
incredibly well in the market.
So it's
finding those stories as well
as, you know,
the ones that we talk about every day.
Everyone loves Jensen, right.
And his leather jacket.
But I think there are
a lot of interesting success stories
in corporate America. Right now.
Very good.
All right.
Well, Ray,
you know,
you've been talking so much
and guided us so
clearly not only about
these global affairs,
but conflicts between countries,
the changing world order.
You've written about it
extensively in your books,
but also in your writings.
You've published in,
fantastic magazine time
that I read about,
you know,
how you see the world coming together
in so many unique ways.
Can you give us your vision on the
from the geopolitical standpoint?
Or maybe you want to directly,
you know, address,
you know, we've seen inflation
in the US not completely go away.
And maybe we look at higher rates
even on things like treasuries.
But where do you see things going
in the next 3 to 5 years.
Well I should establish
that I'm a,
my perspective
as a, as a global macro investor
for about 50 years doing this.
And then one of the experiences
that I always had is
when things surprised me,
I often found out
that they surprised me
because they never happened
in my lifetime before,
but they happened
many times in history.
So I wanted to study the patterns
of history, and I studied them
the last 500 years
in these arcs of history.
And there are these arcs
that, are world orders.
We can call them world orders.
The world
order that we were in began
in 1945, at the end of wars and so on.
And there were analogous periods.
And there are five major forces
that it comes down to
that are intertwined,
that determine that. The first is,
credit creates,
spending and it creates debt,
and it affects markets
and affects economies.
We know that. And we talk about that.
So that nature of what is debt, money
that's a force.
Second force
is through these periods of time,
the force of international
cooperation, domestic cooperation
or conflict,
the movement
toward populism of the right
and populism of the left,
and that the change in that nature
of the political force
that we're dealing with,
that we can talk about now
as moving
much more into a, right of center.
And we know the policies and so on.
The third is,
and the international change
in the world order.
We have a change in the world order,
which is no longer a multilateral
multi, national organizations.
It is a unilateral
environment in which
there are not the same kind of rules.
And we are in a world
in which might is right
and how that works
in terms of cooperation,
the United Nations
and how that works
is going to be a more of a
might is right world.
And number
three and number four is is nature.
Acts of nature,
droughts, floods
and pandemics
have had a bigger effect in history
and now never more
that never in the history
more than now.
And number
five is always through history,
the inventions of new technology
and some man's inventiveness.
They're all tied together.
Now, if I was going to take this year
and go through it, I would say just as,
Kristalina was saying,
we are going to have to deal
with the supply demand of credit.
And so the next item on the list,
we made a successful
political transaction
transition in the United States.
And that was great.
If we had a close Trump loss,
we may not have had the same outcome,
but we now have a clear mandate.
It's a very brief,
time to do a lot of action.
So we have the
we have the budget issue.
And then beyond that,
we have the
what will the internal policies
be in taxation?
Number three, I'm an optimist now.
Okay. You're here.
Here's the pluses.
The debt issue
has to be dealt with
and it will be dealt with.
It's not just American.
It's, it's English, it's British.
It's, French, it's Chinese.
And that issue, that money,
what is
the value of money
is going to be a very important thing.
And how that's being dealt with
will be top of mind.
Right now,
it's the first issue
that the administration
is going to have to deal with,
and it'll have to be tangible.
And then, a but I would say
that we needed almost, a type of war.
We've gone through wars,
the war in the Middle East,
the war in Ukraine and,
Russia and so on,
and the war with China.
I believe that those were exercises in
power because
as part of this new
world order,
and I think that there have been
winners, establishing
winners and losers
and those some of those wars
and I think including in China,
I think the relationships with China
are going to be better
because nobody wants it worse.
And so there may be trade,
you'll see trade and tariffs
and things like that being done.
But the worst case is
those are things that we all work out.
And so I would think that we're
coming over this period of time
if we deal with the debt question.
Well, this is a pressing question.
That is money. And that's what
so if I take I have a tool
and AI tool
which I call an analog finder,
and I say, okay,
what period of time
it by these measures,
I have many measures.
The most recent period of time
is analogous
to periods of time,
I would say, or analogous
is analogous to 1936, 37, 38
in terms of analogous, okay,
we should pay attention to that
and the world order.
And there's also elements of this
which are analogous
in the financial markets
and so on to about 1998, in terms
of, let's say,
pricing of assets
and also interest rate issues.
So I'm talking too long.
I see the red light going on,
but I just wanted to say so
I would say I would have
a near-term optimism,
and so on.
But this debt issue must be dealt with
if you get past the debt
issue, will have an element of peace
and an element.
But we must realize that the world is
at war in many ways,
and we do not have the order.
We do not have the world order.
We have a world
in which might is right.
You know the power is...
The game is in the power.
Okay, Ray,
before we leave you,
you also have this incredible
vessel, Ocean acts.
You run a passion for the ocean.
Something that we share
together as friends.
But you had some amazing discoveries
this year in Raja Ampat,
where you took your boat
and you spent a lot of time.
You did some amazing dives there,
and you did some incredible
discovery work.
And would you just tell us
about the health of the ocean?
What's going on with the ocean,
what you discovered.
Just take a minute,
would you just
give us an update on the ocean?
Because it was pretty awesome. What?
What you what you were able to do
this year with your vessel?
Okay.
Just for those who don't know,
Jaques, that had an effect on me and,
and then, produced an ocean exploration
vessel, and,
we didn't show it in different places.
If you're ever interested,
there's a series
on, Disney that just began Disney Plus.
It's called Ocean Explorers.
You can see it anyway, that's,
we were
we were four months in Indonesia,
all over Indonesia to be able to,
explore
it has the greatest
underwater biodiversity.
And and
then we were in a world of change
in terms of,
for example,
is there going to be mining,
undersea mining,
all of these issues,
and there's basically ignorance.
So as a result,
we did that mission in Indonesia that,
Marc is referring to,
the ocean is,
more than twice
the size of all land, the,
ocean surface,
the world's surface is more than twice
the size of all land,
and it's bigger,
and it's our biggest natural resource.
And what, you asked the condition.
And I'm very conscious of the time.
It's basically treated like a toilet.
That we don't
we don't look at,
we don't understand,
and we jump on the garbage and,
and the feedback loop
that it has for our environment.
I'm going to go on and rattle off,
that the carbon,
a capture and all of the,
implications that the ocean
has for our environment.
But the answer of it
is, in
it's in the terrible,
deteriorating state.
And we don't know it
because there's this sheet.
When we look at the ocean,
we just see the sheet.
It was clear.
And you can see what's going on
under it, you know, and you would,
be enlightened.
So discovery of the ocean is,
a very important thing for me.
And also my, my son who
you know,
he was brought up with the diving
and so on.
So, yeah, it's
it's it's an important issue
and that and Al Gore
and I talk about these things
and you and I talk about these things.
Do you know how important the ocean is?
You know what's condition Al does too.
And so we have an issue there.
All right.
We're going to come back for that.
And we're now going to go to Al.
And now,
you know
I like to bring it all together.
You you are obviously incredibly wise.
You see in the world
in many different places,
you know,
you have incredible
positions and leadership
in the politics world.
But Steve Jobs
also put you on the board
of directors of Apple to make sure
that his vision and his values carry
through Apple all of these years.
You also are an incredible innovator.
You've not only educated
so many people on
what is going on with the climate
you've created.
Probably the most innovative,
NGO in regards to what's going on
with the climate, with climate trace
really being able
to provide us the data.
So keep it front.
And, center.
You know,
Ray briefly touched on that the carbon,
you know,
the ocean is our number one
carbon sink.
20,000 gigatons of carbon
are already stored in the ocean.
But because
so much carbon is now
in the atmosphere,
we have also all these
global warming things.
But tell us,
you know,
where are we in the world right
now, Al?
Give
take us at the highest level
and bring it all the way
down to the data.
Well, thank you, Marc,
and thank you for inviting me.
And it's such an honor
to be on such a great panel.
And thank you, Kristalina, for
for doing what
you're doing for the world.
I want to
I if I had time, I'd
go through and mention each person.
But Ray thank you and Will and Sara,
I want you as well. Sara.
So how do I feel about, things when I.
When you and Will
and I were talking at the table,
I said, I feel fine
and immediately triggered a story,
and I said, oh, we don't have time to.
I'm going to tell you that story.
When I was a young
congressman in, rural Middle Tennessee,
the Grand Ole Opry had a star on
the radio named Cousin Minnie Pearl,
and she wore a straw hat with
a price tag
still hanging down from it
and a calico dress.
And one Saturday night,
I was driving back to my farm
from having town
hall meetings all day,
and I heard Minnie Pearl
tell this story on the radio.
She talked about a farmer who
was involved in an accident,
and he sued for damages.
And when they got to court,
the lawyer for the other driver
got this farmer on the witness
stand and said, now, isn't it true that
right after this accident
you said, I feel fine
and the farmer said, well,
it was it's not that simple.
You see, I was driving my cow
to town
in the back of my truck,
and this fella came driving
right across the center line.
And the lawyer said,
Your Honor, I object.
We just want to hear a
yes or no answer.
Not a long involved story, yes or no?
And farmer said, well,
I was leading up to that.
You see,
I was driving a cow out of town,
the back of my truck,
and this fella came
across the center line,
ran right smack dab into my truck,
knocked it over
and threw me out on one side
and the cow on
the other policeman came up
and took one look at that cow and said,
she is suffering.
Pulled out his gun and shot her
right between the eyes
and came around to my side of the truck
and said, how do you feel?
And so I said, I feel fine.
And I see some of the,
CEOs, not you, but some of the CEOs,
ask questions
how they feel about the new
administration in Washington.
And I think of that story,
Now,
the problem with, telling
that joke is I've run out of time, but,
but I'm giving you another
three minutes. All right.
That was so good.
Thank you.
So,
Chris Lane and I were in a meeting
with Larry Summers earlier,
and he was reminding people
of the incredible
enthusiasm here
at the annual meeting
in the winter of 2007.
And, of course,
not long after that,
there was a sudden
repricing of mortgages because people
suddenly realized
there had been a mass delusion
by some of the bankers
who felt like the extreme risk
of giving mortgages to people
that couldn't
even make a monthly payment
could be immediately
dissipated by lumping
millions of them together,
and then fobbing off the package
into the global economy.
And reality intruded,
and all of a sudden boom,
we have a huge amount of
subprime carbon risk in the economy
right now.
You know,
Kristalina was talking about
getting the developing countries
into this.
The
Renewable energy revolution
is one of the most important,
factors
that we've ever seen
in the global economy.
You talked about all of the strength
in the U.S.
economy, but
some of it's not creating jobs.
Bureau of Labor Statistics
just released the new report.
The number one job fast
growing job in the U.S.
is solar panel installer.
The number two job is wind
turbine technician.
There are 3 million more,
clean energy jobs in the global economy
now than dirty
energy jobs
and Fathi B roll as
there are 15 million more.
If we head toward net zero,
we often we sometimes
hear the word poly crisis.
Some people haven't heard that.
But the the state of the oceans,
the forests, the biodiversity crisis.
Andre Hoffman always brings us
back to the extinction crisis. And
some people say they're all interwoven.
And it's a poly crisis.
We also have a poly solution,
and that is rapidly
phasing out the use of fossil fuels
as quickly as we possibly can,
because in the oceans, for example,
there's a brand new study
showing that the phytoplankton
at the base of the food
chain in the ocean
is now getting to the point
where it is
being seriously
harmed by the
by the extra heat in the oceans
and the extra,
acid coming from the acidification,
of the oceans.
And you can go around the list.
We need to adopt a poly solution.
We have the ability to really move
forward quickly.
Now, the problem is
this energy
transition is funded
mainly by private capital market.
85% of all the money
for the solar and wind
and battery and EV revolution.
But there's a so-called home bias
and most all of
it goes to the US, to Europe
and to China.
And the developing countries
are not getting it
because they are essentially walled off
from access to the private capital
that has to be used
in order to finance this.
Governments can't do it.
Developing countries,
for understandable
reasons, want $1 trillion
from the rich countries.
Okay, I'll endorse that.
But it's not going to happen
because of the political realities.
After China
joined the WTO
and supercharged
the globalization
process, adding the technology
stimulus.
Also, all of a sudden
we had a centrifugal redistribution
of high wage jobs to low wage venues.
And the inequality is increased
both in developed
and developing countries.
Interest rates
in Nigeria
for financing
a solar farm are often seven times
higher than interest
rates in the US and Canada and Europe.
We have got to open that up.
And Kristalina, bless you
for doing such a great job
in trying to get that, done.
But we all need to focus on doing that.
Final point.
Joseph Campbell
once wrote about a Native American
young man who was told by his elders,
in the way of life,
you will come to a chasm
that is not as wide as you fear it is.
Jump over it.
Well,
the late poet, the late great poet
Yevgeny Yevtushenko in,
Russia, then the Soviet Union
said he wrote a poem
called Half Measures.
And the metaphor
at the heart of the poem was
a man
at the edge of a chasm,
trying to decide whether to jump over.
And the point of the poem was,
don't try to do it in two leaps.
That doesn't work.
That's kind of what we have been,
trying to do.
We need to make a decision.
This is,
I would argue, the most consequential
turning point in all of human history.
AI is a big part of it.
And congratulations on Agent Force.
It's going to be the most significant
technology revolution in history.
But the climate crisis posed
as a challenge that challenges us
to scale up our moral imagination.
The risk we are facing is far beyond
what most people have understood
or realized.
It cannot continue as it is.
We're putting
175 million tons into the lower
level of the atmosphere,
where the blue is, where the oxygen is.
Every 24 hours,
it mounts up
because it stays there,
and the average amount there now
traps as much extra heat
as would be released by 750,000
Hiroshima class atomic bombs
exploding every day.
It's insane
for us to allow that to continue.
I'm sorry to get heated.
I press my own buttons these days.
But I'll just, conclude by saying I am.
I'm here
because you invited me,
and also
because you throw
the best party in Davos.
I would say great food and everything,
but I'm also here to recruit you.
I mean, it deadly
seriously, we are at a point where
all hands on deck,
damn it.
And remember,
the only
we got all the technologies
and the deployment models proven out
that we need
the only thing people think we doubt
that we don't have in sufficient
quantity is political will.
But please remember that
political will is itself
a renewable resource.
And that.
All right.
Thank you all.
You still have it in you. It's amazing.
Is that another way of saying you're old.
No it's not.
You're doing great.
Now, let's all,
let's all come back and let's,
take another minute or two.
And, you know, this is a
we just went through a pretty good tour
de force,
wouldn't you say, of
from the financial markets
to the technology markets
to the environment to energy.
And let's try to bring it all out.
Where do we want to be in 2030?
Let's go out now. Ten years.
This panel's done
a remarkably good job
over the last decade or more that it's
been going on and say,
where do we want to be
ten years from now?
You know, we just heard the call.
I'm sorry that Bob Mom's Garden
is the CEO of Commonwealth
Energy, just left
because he's had the most exciting
breakthroughs
in nuclear fusion and a very,
very exciting,
new, new type of energy.
It doesn't necessarily mean
that it's a solving
all of our problems, of course,
because as Al said, there's
so many solutions available
right now
that are able to do so much
where I live
on the big island of Hawaii,
but we're a
relatively small population.
We're about three, 400,000 people,
but we're more than 60% renewable now.
And by 2030,
I'll just start out by saying
we will be 100% renewable.
Now we have an unfair advantage
because we got those solar panels
that you mentioned.
We got that wind also.
We got some batteries.
Not as many as we need,
but we need more batteries.
And we also have a very active volcano
that we plug into with some geothermal.
And so we hook it up.
And so we got some very
clean energy happening there.
But it's a
vision for the whole world,
I actually think,
and it's a quite a sustainable place.
It's remarkable.
What's happening on that one island?
I often think it could be a vision
for the whole world.
So what is the vision for the world
going forward?
Let's take a minute.
When we look at AI, when we look at,
you know,
you mentioned
the forests earlier
on the panel that we were just
in, you know, we've deforested
the world
also from 6 trillion trees
to less than 3 trillion each trillion.
Thank you,
Marc Benioff,
for starting the one
Trillion Trees initiative.
You're very I mean, this is my mentor.
Thank you.
That's my mentor
who gave me the first research ever
on that. But yes, we have
you know,
each trillion trees stores
200 gigatons of carbon.
And we've that's three,
you know, 3 trillion trees,
that 600 gigatons of carbon
banking that we lost
that got emitted
as well into the world.
And, I was very proud of the Congo
yesterday, who with in partnership
with the World Economic Forum
and the Trillion Tree Initiative
now said that we are going to have
the world's
largest forest reserve in the Congo,
and we actually have commitments
now for 300 billion trees,
including 70 billion from China.
So I'm very optimistic
that we will get to a trillion trees
committed and planted
and restored and recovered by 2030.
But let's think about
what are our goals
for 2030 in regards
to the oceans, the trees.
But also the climate energy.
AI,
as you said, let's use
our moral imagination.
I love that phrase,
and I'll be stealing it in the future.
I won't just be using the phrase
moral hazard, which I become, that,
you know, I must use the phrase.
And Al was upset with me about that,
but that's okay. But,
let's, let's go back to
Will, so.
Will, you've had a lot of time
to think about this.
You've done pioneering work.
You're remarkably prophetic, visionary
in your personality.
Dig deep down and tell us
where are we going to be in 2030?
So
2028
that formed four years ahead of us.
So coming from an American perspective.
Hopefully,
we're not
cleaning ourselves off.
And then we have two years
for 2030.
So these next four years are,
you know,
are important for us.
You know, we're
because our first steps in a way
we could trip and fall,
if we lead with greed,
it's going to be horrible.
If it's a.
If we're not empathetic,
open minded, collaborative
and we're starting off
not in a collaborative state.
It's anti-American to
to not be, like,
empathetic to folks
that want to be in America,
seeing that America is like
made up
of a whole bunch
of different nationalities.
So to accept one nationality in crisis,
but then kick out
other folks that are looking for refuge
at the same time,
they want to do jobs
that Americans don't want to do,
and then
here comes this
robot force
that's coming
to do the jobs that are humans
that we kicking out.
That they want to do.
So hopefully in 2030.
Just me being a blind optimist.
Things are great,
but
it's not starting off that way.
It started off with like, the vision of
money over people.
LA is like burning
my high school is burned down
a friend of mine
that's in the black eyed peas
His kids can't go to school
because their school burned down.
It's three weeks into January
and my hometown's
burning 4 or 5 burning right now,
and they're getting museum.
So it's,
you know,
I wish I wish LA wasn't burning
for me too, but it's burning.
Climate change is real.
Shit's hot.
But.
Hopefully we have, like,
we're not sharing a communal AI.
We have our own AIs.
It's ours.
To do that, data needs to be,
like, sacred.
Like I have my immune system,
my digestive system,
have all my systems.
If I'm feeling sick, I can't say,
hey, can use a restroom for me.
I can,
or for catching a cold, and I can't,
can I borrow your immune system
to fight this off?
So why are we why
why are we open to sharing
the most intimate system,
which is like AI and data?
It's just as much
mine as it is just as much yours
as your nervous system
and your neural biological system,
your skeletal system.
And so hopefully we get to this
AI
as a human right, data
as a human right,
not leading with greed, more empathetic
because the machine
is going to learn from us.
And if it's learning from our greed
and our like division
and we're not loving,
it's definitely not
going to love better than us.
But we're not doing a good job loving
and being empathetic.
So we have a lot of like,
internalizing to do, like,
what the fuck is this?
Sorry for cursing,
but what what is this all about?
Like, how rich can you get?
How much money do you want to sit on?
There's a lot of people out there
that could use just a little bit of it,
a little bit of,
like uplift thing,
a little bit of preparation
because of
there's a whole bunch of money
going around and make machine smarter.
But we're not making humans smart.
That's lopsided.
So hopefully ten years from now,
2035,
you know these inevitable
that are that
the logic points to that's
what it's going to be like don't happen
and let's make this the
the human age in the age of like
hopefully the genetic world could like
make us look inside to be better humans
because the machine's
going to be fucking awesome.
But as a machine
going to be that awesome
and we're going to be
that fucking wack, that's not cool.
Very good.
Thank you.
Will,
how about if we just take a minute
and just kind of talk about,
I mean, Will hit on a lot of things,
extreme wealth.
And we also heard from Ray might is
right. The poly crisis.
We heard from, from Al,
accessing our moral imagination,
the human age, the robot force,
the regenerative,
the worlds of regenerative
biology as well that are going on
that L.A. is burning.
Indeed. And climate change is real.
Kristalina, can you give us a minute
into the future of the,
Sorry.
It's, the International Monetary Fund.
We love running scenarios.
So you ask us about the future,
and we are like Cheshire cats.
We love to talk about that.
So we run scenarios for the next 10,
15 years.
And, the the short story is
we can end up being 5 or 6 times
wealthier as a world, or we can end up
almost stagnating as a world.
And the main determinant
as to
whether we would be better,
much better off
is, would be how we manage
to collaborate,
to face the shocks to come.
Because what
I don't know
what the next crisis is going to be.
I don't know what the next
shock is going to be.
I just know it is going to happen.
I came from a centrally planned
economy.
I love markets,
I love competition,
actually, one one of the
my favorite jokes
about that is two men in the forest
and a big bear comes out.
One of the men
starts running, the other one
takes off his backpack,
pulls his running shoes,
and the first one says,
what do you think
with this running shoes?
With the sneakers,
we would run faster than the bear.
The second one says,
I don't want to run
faster than the bear.
I want to run faster than you.
And my point here is
that we have to learn to collaborate,
because the bears,
whether it is
climate shocks,
whether it is a financial shock,
whether it is another pandemic,
they're going to be not very,
mindful of the speed of running.
They will say, I'm going to get you all
unless we cooperate.
I don't think we would cooperate
in the traditional way.
I think it is a multipolar world,
but we still can have
collaboration of businesses
to bring solutions
faster to everybody,
and we can have countries
that are neighbors or share
same values, collaborating more.
And then we would have
a much better world for everybody.
How about that?
Very good.
Thank you.
Sara,
you give us a vision.
Take a minute.
Just think about
where we're going in the future
and how we're going
to pull this together based on, well,
the world we have.
I'll answer that, Marc, by sharing
two things that I've learned
here at Davos
this week.
Number one, you know
and and Al you know in your in your,
in your a great sort of urgent call
to action on climate.
You did not use the word ESG.
And I have not heard
that word used at all this year.
And we're also starting to retire
DIE as a word.
But what I've learned in Davos
is that businesses and leaders
are still extremely focused
on the well-intentioned policies
that are behind those very politicized,
dirty words.
And I think my point is,
politicians are short term,
but businesses are not.
And so when I think about 2030,
I think about and I'm going to steal it
since we're all stealing each other's
phrases,
a phrase from Marc Benioff,
that business is the greatest platform
for change.
And one of the reasons I'm optimistic
is because of the people
in this room and hear businesses
through technology
and through better governance
and better policies
and just good business
are going to help solve
these sort
of existential problems of debt.
And I'll hopefully work
with governments
and inequality
and climate and use AI for things like
helping
find cures to
cancer and diseases
and all of those great things.
And at the same time
be responsible and contribute
to society and longer.
And companies last
for hundreds of years.
They can do this.
And I think
as long as we have
really good leadership,
which we do,
and a lot of our companies globally,
it paints an optimistic future.
But I'm biased.
I cover business.
Very good.
Thank you very much.
Ray.
You want to take us forward
a year or two or a decade
or as long as you want.
As far as how you go,
yeah,
I want to pick up on well-being
because I think,
like I, I will
I must
watch a lot of statistics
over literally hundreds of years
of different
measures of well-being and,
I think
we're so focused on accomplishment.
Well, life expectancy
increasing and GDP increasing
and so on
that we overlook what Will is saying
and and well-being.
It's all going to depend on harmony,
how we are with each other
and how we are with nature.
And so if you look at the correlations
between,
well, health and happiness,
for those who are interested,
it's online.
I rated 24 countries,
hundreds of different statistics
of well-being,
strength of this, this and the other.
And you look at
and I put them into categories
strength, strength of the economy,
strength of military and so on.
Happiness and health.
And there's very little correlation
between strength,
that measure of GDP, military
and so on.
And health.
There's a big drop off.
For example,
the United States has a five year lower
life expectancy.
And if you measure health, it's
big difference.
Excuse me, happiness.
So I think
we have to pay attention.
It goes back to religions
across religions.
It goes back to harmony, karma,
how people are with each other.
So, you and you mentioned cooperation.
So will we have harmony
that, that so that's the question.
I don't know the answer to that,
but I think we
when we're, when we're fighting.
So you can go back
hundreds of years
and you can find
times that there's harmony
and you can find the worst of times
in modern times,
if you look at that change.
So I'm with you on this.
It'll all depend on how we are
in our harmony
with each other and with, nature.
I think because what goes it's karma.
It's what goes around, comes around.
It's do unto others
as you would have them do.
These are good practical rules.
I believe.
So Al we're going to
bring it back to you,
which is appropriate, since
now we've made it
all the way to the Holy Trinity.
And you know, where are we finding our,
our unity is with ourselves
and with nature,
with the world, with God.
How are we going
to bring all this together
in health and harmony
and happiness and strength,
restoring our planet,
you know, creating this new world?
How do you see things going forward?
Well,
I think the answer to the question
you're asking all of us,
will depend first and foremost
on whether or not we can restore
our ability
to reason together, collectively,
in the way we once did.
I recommend this new book by,
Chris Hayes on the attention economy.
Nicholas Carr wrote one called
The Shallows a decade earlier.
We have been through a massive,
transition from the print based media
that was
dominant when the American Constitution
Swiss Confederation
and all of
the liberal democracies were founded,
and it fostered and encouraged,
reasoning and collective reasoning,
we went through,
the electronic media and broadcasting
and then to the internet
and now social media.
But attention has become, a commodity
and our ability to reason collectively
is being seriously impaired.
These algorithms that,
are the gateway to the rabbit holes on
the internet
are really quite dangerous.
They're the equivalent
of digital air fifteens,
and they ought to be banned as abusive
and predatory
because the rabbit holes
and we've all gone down them, but some
go way down
them and
they're more like,
pitcher plants with slippery sides.
And you know
what's at the bottom
of the rabbit hole?
That's where the echo chamber is.
And when people spend too long
in the echo chamber,
they become vulnerable
to a different form of AI
not artificial intelligence,
artificial insanity.
And I don't say that as a
as an effort to get a laugh.
I mean it literally and seriously,
that's where QAnon comes from.
That's where election
denial comes from.
That's where climate denial comes from.
We are at our best.
And the United States of America,
with apologies
to France and their revolution,
we have been the avatar
of
redeeming the promise that free peoples
can make intelligent, wise decisions
when they
have discourse with one another
and decide on
what's more likely than not to be true.
That process has been disrupted.
We have to reestablish it and
and pour it over from the digital,
from the the ancient print world,
the forms
and norms of democracy
and representative democracy
into the digital world.
Some are doing it.
Audrey Tang in Taiwan, Estonia.
There are a few examples of this,
but to me,
maybe the single most urgent task.
If you want a serious
answer to the question
you've posed to us,
is how we can reestablish
our ability
to think collectively together
and use the force of reason
to make intelligent decisions.
We have that capacity.
And by the way, leaders
make a difference.
But the secret between
on the relationship
between leaders and publics is
if somebody calls out
the worst in people, they'll get that.
If they call out the best in
people, they'll get that too.
We're now in
the former phase, but we'll come back.
I saw an Indian diplomat
saying our civilizations
lasted for a thousand years.
I guess we can get through these next
four years.
And I believe that's the case.
I'm optimistic, I really am.
But it requires
an act of political will.
And this is the time
for all people
who care about our future
to leave their comfort zones.
This is
this is
this is an opportunity and a challenge
that this generation has to rise to.
It'll be remembered.
It'll be remembered forever.
This is the turning point.
Will you thank my panel
for this great discussion?
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