One of the biggest players in the global shopping marketplace this year will be China, specifically Chinese shopping apps. We predict that these apps will capture $160 billion in global ecommerce market share outside of China. This shift is being largely fueled by shoppers' attitudes swapping out the need for quality for a push for savings. 67% of shoppers say that lower prices influence who they buy from vs just 29% who say that product quality influences their decision making.

From the first mile to the last mile, chaos, quagmire, and just confusion around the globe is going to impact the world of retail. We are already seeing container shipping costs becoming unstable, impacting large-scale trade. And we think that local infrastructure issues will put further strain on last-mile deliveries. In total, we predict that brands and retailers will spend an extra $197B in middle-mile expenses, increasing 97% over last year.

AI has already drastically changed the world, especially the world of retail, and we don’t see that slowing down at all this holiday season. As AI continue to get more embedded into search experiences, we predict that search will drive a nearly 3x better conversion rate compared to traffic not engaging with site search. But you’ll see more growth in AI-powered service too. Service agents will benefit from generative AI – providing personalized replies – while dealing with cranky customers who are looking for products, orders, and discounts.

Shopper expectations seem to change every hour, and we’re going to see that volatility play out throughout the holiday season. Already, 67% of shoppers plan on shopping during Cyber Week and as same-day delivery becomes more ubiquitous, consumers will shift away from in-store even more. We predict that online stores will take 7% of in-store sales on Black Friday. That means we’ll see shopping moments get shorter, but more intense, as more shopping moves online and is concentrated around Black Friday.

We predict that 2 out of 5 purchases over the holiday season will be from a repeat buyer. And, when you factor in that shoppers prioritize brands and retailers that offer loyalty programs, you can see that these programs will have a bigger impact than ever. Already, 63% of shoppers say that they’re making more purchases from stores where they can earn and redeem loyalty points. And 46% say that the ability to redeem and earn loyalty points is a top 2 factor (behind price) influencing their decision to buy.