Being in-the-know is always trending.

Explore our holiday shopping predictions.



Ready for retail’s biggest moment? Over 1.5 billion shoppers will be spending during peak season this year. We have the insights, trends, and data-packed predictions to help you create show-stopping customer experiences.

Global holiday forecasts to power your retail plans.

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Moderate Sales Growth

We predict a 2% year-over-year global sales growth for November and December, totaling $1.19 trillion.

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BOPIS-powered Sales

BOPIS will drive 33% of global online orders the week before Christmas 
and Boxing Week.

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AI Boosting Sales

18% of global orders will be influenced by
a combination of predictive 
and generative AI.

Shopping on a mobile phone

Chinese shopping apps will take market share.

One of the biggest players in the global shopping marketplace this year will be China, specifically Chinese shopping apps. We predict that these apps will capture $160 billion in global ecommerce market share outside of China. This shift is being largely fueled by shoppers' attitudes swapping out the need for quality for a push for savings. 67% of shoppers say that lower prices influence who they buy from vs just 29% who say that product quality influences their decision making.

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Middle mile shipping puts strain on margins.

From the first mile to the last mile, chaos, quagmire, and just confusion around the globe is going to impact the world of retail. We are already seeing container shipping costs becoming unstable, impacting large-scale trade. And we think that local infrastructure issues will put further strain on last-mile deliveries. In total, we predict that brands and retailers will spend an extra $197B in middle-mile expenses, increasing 97% over last year.

Einstein and gift boxes

Shoppers embrace AI to search for the perfect gifts.

AI has already drastically changed the world, especially the world of retail, and we don’t see that slowing down at all this holiday season. As AI continues to get more embedded into site search experiences, we predict that site search will drive a nearly 3x better conversion rate compared to traffic not engaging with it. And you’ll see more growth in AI-powered service too. Service agents will benefit from generative AI – providing personalized replies – while dealing with stressed customers who are looking for products, orders, and discounts.

Shopping on a computer and shipping boxes

Black Friday will become Cyber Friday.

Shopper expectations seem to change every hour, and we’re going to see that volatility play out throughout the holiday season. Already, 67% of shoppers plan on shopping during Cyber Week and as same-day delivery becomes more ubiquitous, consumers will shift away from in-store even more. We predict that online stores will take 7% of in-store sales on Black Friday. That means we’ll see shopping moments get shorter, but more intense, as more shopping moves online and is concentrated around Black Friday.

A group of the same shoes in different colors

Retailers tap loyal shoppers to avoid rising digital marketing costs.

We predict that 2 out of 5 purchases over the holiday season will be from a repeat buyer. And, when you factor in that shoppers prioritize brands and retailers that offer loyalty programs, you can see that these programs will have a bigger impact than ever. Already, 63% of shoppers say that they’re making more purchases from stores where they can earn and redeem loyalty points. And 46% say that the ability to redeem and earn loyalty points is a top 2 factor (behind price) influencing their decision to buy.

A graph and a shopping cart.

Discover more trends at the Quarterly Shopping Index.

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